UFC 114: Rampage vs. Evans Prediction

I'm pretty excited about what is going to begin in about an hour and a half - UFC 114. There has been a huge surplus of trash-talking between "Sugar" Rashad Evans and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson for more than a year now, ever since Rashad entered the ring after Jackson eked out a victory over Rashad's teammate Keith Jardine. (Rashad tends to stick up for Keith Jardine all the time, sort of a weird big-brother thing).

So now, after The Ultimate Fighter Season 10, the delay around Rampage filming the A-Team movie, and a whole lot of build up through things like UFC Primetime, they're going to settle things. Or at least fight.

Right now most odds-makers have them dead even. MMA Torch has Evans with a slight advantage. Before things happened, I thought I would weigh in with my own thoughts.

I've always been a fan of Rampage, and after TUF 10 I became more of a fan of Evans. I got a chance to see what a good coach he turned out to be, and how willing he was to help his teammates, in contrast with Rampage, who came off over the course of the show as lackluster in everything but trading insults with his rival.

Everyone talks about how Rampage is larger and more powerful, where Evans has more speed and perhaps athleticism. They both have one-punch knockout power and are both strong wrestlers, though Rampage usually uses his to stuff takedowns or to get back to his feet, and hasn't used much of his ground-and-pound since his Pride days.

On paper things look even - except when you take into account the camp each fighter comes from.

Rampage comes from the Wolf's Lair camp in the UK, training with the likes of Michael Bisping and Cheick Congo. Rampage is far and away the most successful fighter in that camp, and I honestly wonder if he gets a chance to train with anyone near his caliber on a regular basis.

On the other hand, Rashad Evans comes from one of the half-dozen best MMA training camps in the world (those would be, in my opinion, in addition to Jackon's Submission Fighting, American Top Team, American Kickboxing Academy, Black House, Chute Box, and Extreme Couture). At Jackson's Submission Fighting, Evans trains regularly with the likes of GPS, Shane Carwin, Nate Marquardt and Keith Jardine, as well as up-and-comers like Jon Jones. This means that every day he is pushed by some of the best fighters in the world, including two current UFC champions in GPS and Carwin (Interim HW).

Granted - Rampage has said he is more motivated than ever before, and a motivated, well-trained Rampage is terrifying, considering how he has dominated in the past despite terrible management, lack of training, and so on. So I don't put it past him to knock Evans' skull into the fifth row at the MGM Grand Garden Arena.

Given that, however, I am going with Evans. I think that they are so evenly matched that who they train with will make the difference. I think that Greg Jackson has assembled what might be the most talent-rich roster in MMA right now, and I think that will make a big difference. In order for Rampage to defeat someone who matches up so evenly with him, he will need to move to a camp where he regularly faces fighters of equal caliber.

Rashad Evans by unanimous decision, because my assumption is that his game-plan is lay-and-pray and out-work on the feet. I think Evans will avoid settling in and trading hard shots with Rampage because...who the hell would want to trade with Rampage?

MMA Detour After UFC 112 and Strikeforce: Nashville

This blog is primarily about games now, but I don't have another place to really post my thoughts after UFC 112 and the fiasco of Strikeforce in Nashville. Between the two events, I think that a lot of rethinking has to go into most top 10 ranking lists I see out there.

First off, Frankie Edgar beating BJ Penn is huge. It wasn't a stunning victory in and of itself, having gone to a decision, but remember that weeks before the fight everyone was looking past Edgar and talking about BJ going up to welterweight again to make a run for that title as well (assuming someone has wrested it from GSP's iron grip).

Last night on Strikeforce there were three summary dethronings of ranking favorites in three profoundly underwhelming fights. All three title fights went to a decision - the most exciting fight by far was at the end when the brawl broke out between the entire Caesar Gracie camp and Jason Mayhem Miller.

Aoki, Mousasi and even Dan Henderson each got thoroughly spoiled by their opponents, surprising many if rankings before Saturday are any measure.

Aoki was touted as the number 2 behind BJ Penn in the lightweight division (before Frankie Edgar of course). Mousasi was talked about ceaselessly, fitting into Strikeforce's apparent plan of having one dominant "name" fighter in each division and then feeding them outmatched opponents. Dan Henderson we all know - he left the UFC as the only man to win a round against Anderson Silva in that organization, and was signed by Strikeforce to be their new juggernaut after Jake Shields makes his essentially inevitable move to greener UFC pastures.

And then Strikeforce: Nashville happened.

Now Aoki is exposed as a fighter who was overwhelmed by Gilbert Melendez on the feet and on the ground. Mousasi's total lack of takedown defense was finally exploited for another decision defeat.

And, amazingly, Jake Shields kicked Dan Henderson's ass for four long rounds. He spent so much time in Hendo's mount that he could probably receive mail there. He lived there like there was a zipcode.

As far as I'm concerned, the stock for these three highly touted fighters plummeted Saturday.

In thinking about these events, I thought I'd try my hand at top 10 rankings of my own. Here goes nothing

Lightweight

1 Frankie Edgar

2 BJ Penn

3 Gray Maynard beat Edgar but I don't think he could beat BJ

4 Kenny Florian

5 Tyson Griffin

6 Sean Sherk still injured but would handle anyone below this point I think

7 Gilbert Melendez

8 Clay Guida

9 Shinya Aoki

10 George Sotiropoulos I think the sky's the limit for this guy and he will steadily rise

Welterweight

1 GSP

...again, a wide gap - except for Silva and Daley, his only possible challenges are rematches

2 John Fitch officially is in the "Rich Franklin" position, dominating everyone but the champ

3 Thiago Alves

4 Paulo Thiago

5 Josh Koscheck his explosive striking puts him above Shields, his wrestling puts him above Hardy and Daley

6 Jake Shields I have a feeling his stiff standup might mean a fall on this list, but embarrassing Dan Henderson when you're a natural welterweight is serious business

7 Dan Hardy

8 Paul Daley

9 Nick Diaz

10 Mike Swick

This lineup has some awesome fights between neighbors: Imagine Diaz vs. Swick, Hardy vs. Daley, Koscheck vs. Shields...holy crap those would be amazing fights

Middleweight

1 Anderson Silva

...this space is reserved for the huge gap between him and all others. I feel like 2 should be blank

2 Chael Sonnen vulerable to submissions so he'll lose to Silva after he drags him to the ground but what an entertaining Republican

3 Nate Marquardt

4 Vitor Belfort could probably knock Marquardt out, would probably be taken down by him - toss up, but Nate has a much better record

5 Jake Shields <--- natural welterweight; take that Dan

6 Dan Henderson beat Franklin, gotta go here

7 Rich Franklin still deserves standing in this division, even now

8 Vanderlei Silva

9 Yoshihiro Akiyama

10 Patrick Cote remember him? Healed and training and coming back soon for another run at the title

Light Heavyweight

1 Lyoto Machida here until he's defeated, sorry Rua apologists

2 Mauricio Rua

3 Rashad Evans because I think Evans will beat Rampage

4 Rampage Jackson

5 Anotonio Rogerio Nogueria

6 Anderson Silva yes, he's here too, and on his way up I don't doubt

7 Thiago Silva

8 Randy Couture

9 Jon Jones

10 Ryan Baeder

Again, amazing fights among neighbors. Jones vs. Baeder, Silva vs. Couture, A. Silva vs. Little Nog...goosebumps just thinking about it

Heavyweight

1 Brock Lesnar

2 Shane Carwin I won't be surprised if he knocks out Lesnar in the first round and we have a new beast at the top

3 Cain Valasquez

4 Junior Dos Santos is explosive like Fedor, trains with the Noguerias, and unlike Fedor, actually fights the best fighters in the world

5 Fedor Emeliananko nowhere near the top while popping open tomato cans in Strikeforce

6 Frank Mir

7 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria lost to Fedor and Valasquez so here he goes

8 Randy Couture

9 Fabricio Werdum in the tier under Fedor, outside of the UFC

10 Roy Nelson yes, Big Country. I think he'll prove me right